I want you to tell me exactly how many hairs are on my head. Not my beard, the top of my head.

…if you’re answer is “none lol, you’re bald”, first of all you’re a bad person. Secondly, I love you.

Of course, nobody knows the correct answer. I could ask a group of primary school children and a group of doctors and both would be as wrong as each other. One group might be closer than the other, but as the saying goes, close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades (this is such a cool saying man).

Ultimately, the difference between the two group’s answers will be the accuracy of their estimates; how close their educated guesses are to the true answer. Clearly doctors have had years more education, both formal and experience based, than their child counterparts. This increases the probability that their estimates will be accurate.

Which is cute and all, but at the end of the day,

a guess is still just a guess.

Let me run that back just in case you didn’t catch it the way I wanted you to:

Regardless of how educated a guess is, a guess is still a guess.

Everyday we as human beings try to improve ourselves, right? We spend 18+ years in education, sink our 10,000 hours into our hobbies and vocations. We study human interactions and introspectively monitor our own behaviour, all in an attempt to guide our behaviours to the “right” destination.

And I’m not saying this is wrong – I do this, too. I’m human, too. I’ve done everything from playgroup to a bachelor’s degree, I’ve been training for athletics for at least the last, psh, 10 years? I’ve made many life mistakes, some of which I’ve learned from and some from which I’m yet to learn. But all this does is reduce the probability that I’ll “fail”, whatever that may look like. Having a degree doesn’t make you smart; there will always be more that I don’t know than what I do. Honestly, I couldn’t tell you half the things my degree is about, but that’s besides the point. Ask anyone who sees me regularly, I’m a unique blend of intelligent and idiotic – it’s frustrating. Amassing hours in a particular field doesn’t mean you’ll win every competition, or even perform well all the time, because you’re not a robot. Even if you are (which is mad), technology can fail too. Look at VAR. Mistakes are an unavoidable part of life.

I guess what I’m saying is… Relax. Sometimes you might feel as though you’ve done everything you can do and you’re still not where you want to be. If you are, great – but understand that what works today may not work tomorrow, for many reasons that nobody understands. Remember that this life isn’t truly causal – an action doesn’t have the same reaction for everyone or in every scenario. All we can do is follow the correlations and hope for the best.

Don’t take life too seriously.

Everybody is just out here guessing.

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